DEVELOPING AN OPTIMUM MODEL OF ROMANIA`S MONETARY INTEGRATION THROUGH CREATING A SYSTEM OF INDICATORS FOR MONITORING REAL CONVERGENCE AND SIMULATING THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF EURO ADOPTION
Proiect CNCSIS AT nr. 8/2007
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The research project with theme "Developing an optimum model of Romania`s monetary integration through creating a system of indicators for monitoring real convergence and simulating the costs and benefits of euro adoption" is aim at identification of the moment when Romania will be ready to adopt the euro, based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios....
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Since there is no ECB strategy regarding the monetary integration of the new EU member states into the euro zone, much less that of Romania, The European Council of Nice (December 2000) recommended that candidate countries should adopt that monetary policy which best matches the economic conditions in every country and corresponds to the general economic policy....
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OBJECTIVES AND ACTIVITIES WITHIN THE PROJECT
     The research project with theme "Developing an optimum model of Romania`s monetary integration through creating a system of indicators for monitoring real convergence and simulating the costs and benefits of euro adoption" is aim at identification of the moment when Romania will be ready to adopt the euro, based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.
     Starting from the premise that in Romania there is no strategy for the adoption of the euro, the research subject proves to be extremely important and opportune as it proposes a model of Romania's optimum monetary integration, adaptable at different endogenous and exogenous variables.
     In this framework the objectives of the research are:
AnObiectiveActivități asociate
2007 1. Monitoring the evolution and identifying the tendencies regarding the process of Romania's integration into the European Monetary Union
1. Following Romania's main evolutions on its way to integration into the EU and EMU
2. Analyzing the achievement of the criteria for nominal convergence stipulated by the Maastricht Treaty
3.Analyzing the classical indicators of real convergence and the assessment of their achievement rate
2. Pointing out models of monetary integration developed in Europe
1. Analyzing the classical model of monetary integration used by the EU-12
2. Identifying strategies of monetary integration for the new EU member states on the basis of the foreign exchange regimes in every country and of the meeting of the convergence criteria
3. Formulating models for these countries by pointing out the similarities and differences between them, according to the deadlines for the introduction of the euro
3. Determining the optimum correlation between the nominal convergence and the real one
1. Identifying the extent to which the specific indicators reflect the reality of the Romanian economy
2. Formulating new indicators for the assessment of the real convergence
3. Building the octagon of real convergence with the following variables: rate of economic growth, employment rate, inflation rate, budget deficit in the GDP, current balance in the GDP, long term interest rate, the real exchange rate, the labour cost in the GDP
2008 1.Building possible alternative scenarios for Romania on its way to the integration into the monetary union
1. Formulating evolutionary hypotheses for Romania if Maastricht criteria are maintained
2. Identifying new back-up solutions if the Maastricht criteria are altered, with a view to meeting the criteria of the optimum currency area in the possibility of the euro zone enlargement
3. Developing an optimum model of monetary integration for Romania
2. Assessing the costs and benefits of the introduction of the euro in Romania
1. Determining the impact of the euro introduction on the business environment, the financial market, the population
2. Identifying the institutional changes triggered by the entrance into the euro zone and finding solutions in order to facilitate this integration
3. Building a simulation model for the costs and benefits of the adoption of the euro in Romania based on such variables as price, production, factors of production, foreign trade, revenues, expenses, GDP
3. Disseminating and capitalizing the research results
1. Organizing meetings with researchers from the country and from abroad
2. Building a site which should contain all the results of the research for the maximum capitalization of their potential
3. Writing a book that will be published at a renowned publishing house
     We mention some elements of originality: determining the similarities and the differences between the scenarios of monetary integration for the new member countries; finding an optimal correlation between nominal and real convergence and identifying the extent to which specific indicators reflect the reality of the Romanian economy in order to formulate new indicators and to build the octagon of real convergence.
     The aim of the research has a visible impact on the quality and performance of research activities with a view to ensuring compatibility with the European research area; it is based on working with "Victor Slavescu" Center of Financial and Monetary Research
     The project proposes to build a model for simulating the costs and benefits of euro adoption in Romania and to inform the population - for an easier adaptation - and the economic agents - in view of increasing the competitiveness in a knowledge-based society.